The Pool Is Draining: How Derivatives Fake the Price While Spot Buyers Drain the Real Supply
Bitcoin’s Price Is a Lie (Sort of)
You check the price. It’s down 5%. Your cousin texts you: “LOL Bitcoin is crashing.”
Bitcoin didn’t do shit. What’s crashing is the price, and that price is increasingly set by derivatives, not by people buying or selling actual Bitcoin.
Out there entities like BlackRock’s IBIT, MicroStrategy, and Metaplanet are quietly draining the inbound coin supply — buying real BTC and locking it up.
The Pool Analogy (Because We Hate Jargon)
Picture all the Bitcoin as a lake, or pool:
– Water = Bitcoin’s available supply on exchanges
– Spot buyers (us) ,IBIT, MSTR, etc.= siphoning that water out permanently
– Derivatives market = a pipe that sprays water back in when traders get liquidated
– Price = whatever’s the water level is at that time.
When overleveraged traders get liquidated on Binance or CME, some Bitcoin flows back in temporarily — but the real buyers are draining it faster than it can refill.
– Weekly ETF inflows: 12,000–20,000 BTC permanently removed
– New BTC mined: ~3,375 BTC/week
– Exchange reserves: Down from 3M+ BTC (2020) to under 2M BTC (2024)
Couple Thousand BTC mismatch, wouldn’t ya say?
Its only accelerating
Derivatives Set Price — Not Value
Bitcoin’s derivatives markets — futures, options, perpetuals — let you bet on price without owning the asset. These markets are:
Heavily leveraged (up to 100x on some platforms)
Insanely liquid (billions traded daily)
Mostly cash-settled (no BTC needs to move)
This means whales can push price up or down - without touching spot Bitcoin at all.
So when you see Bitcoin “dump,” that might just be the refill pipe kicking into high gear — but make no mistake: **week after week, the drain wins.**
Even during temporary dumps, institutions are there with a mop bucket and a grin, scooping up discounted sats before retail even logs back in.
The pool might fill *briefly* — when liquidations are heavy or buying slows — but zoom out and the trend is clear:
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This post is part of The Corn Report — a Bitcoin-first macro blog tracking the real moves behind the headlines.
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